NoHo Partners: Strong recovery within Finnish restaurant market - Nordea

Nordea released latest card data from Finland today, now available until week 23. Regarding restaurant market, recovery appears to be fast with the help from easing of restrictions and favourable weather. Card purchases have reached 2019 levels although most densely populated cities restaurants have to close at 11:00pm. We and Refinitiv consensus have anticipated EUR ~15m sales for NoHo in June (EUR 11m in May and EUR 4.7m in April), which might turn out to be too conservative expectation if the current trend holds. Given the current trading conditions, NoHo should be cash flow positive from June onwards. In addition, strong market conditions should secure short-term liquidity through positive working capital impact. Given the restricted foreign travelling, we think summer season will be favourable for NoHo. The company is currently expecting around EUR 280m sales with the current portfolio in 2022, while we thin k NoHo is low-balling its potential and model EUR 294m sales in 2022E. NoHo will report Q2 on 10 August, while it will release June sales figures on week 28. We have a fair value range of 8.6-10.8 per share for NoHo.