Rental income came in at SEK 81m (4m) compared to our forecast of SEK 78m. Net operating income (NOI) was SEK 54m, relative to our estimate of SEK 55m. Income from property management (IFPM) amounted to SEK 22m (-24m) compared to our forecast of SEK 10m due to primality significantly lower financial expenses but also lower central admin costs. SEK 2.9bn was acquired in Q4 and total investment property value now totals SEK 6.9bn. The occupancy rate fell slightly to 89% vs. 90% in Q3, either due to acquired or existing properties.
EPRA NRVPS of SEK 17.2, 6% above ABGSCe
Property value changes amounted to SEK 292m (37m) or +7.4%, we expected SEK 81m or 2.1%. Value changes were due to acquisitions below market value, rent increases and identified building rights in acquired properties. EPRA NRV per share fell 7% q-o-q and was SEK 17.2 (+6% vs ABGSCe). The fall per share despite positive value changes and cash earnings growth is due to a larger number of shares following equity issues. Net LTV fell to 71% in Q4 from 81% in Q3’21.
‘22e P/EPRA NRV of 0.55x, ~40% below peers
Oscar Properties is valued at ~14x and ~0.5x on ’23e P/IFPM and P/EPRA NRV. We note the shorter track record and slightly slower EPRA NRV growth than peers (Castellum, FastPartner and Wihlborgs), but we forecast larger cash earnings growth than cons. and ABGSC estimates for these peers. Its valuation is in line with peers on P/IFPM but ~40% below on P/EPRA NRV.
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