Looking into Q4’21, we expect to see EMEA continuing to drive growth, with strong sales within prosthetics, especially bionic sales, while we expect to see some headwinds from APAC, where lockdowns have impacted sales in e.g. Australia (estimated to account for ~1/3 of APAC revenues, or ~3% of group revenues). Overall, we expect to see group revenues of USD 190m (company-collected consensus at USD 189m), with prosthetics accounting for USD 125m (cons. 124m) and Bracing & Support accounting for USD 65m (cons. 65m).
FY’22 cost base expected to continue diluting margins
For FY’22, we expect organic growth of 5.8% (cons. 7.1%) and an EBITDA margin of 21.5% (cons. 22.1%). While we acknowledge that both the top line and bottom line will benefit from expected price increases, we believe the ongoing increases in component and freight costs are unlikely to flatten out in FY’22, and we therefore lower our estimates to reflect this. We also lower our revenue growth estimates slightly to reflect a scenario with less pent-up demand being realized in FY’22, given the nature of Össur’s markets and the fact that most pent-up demand in mechanical prosthetics is likely to have been captured.
Fair value range lowered to DKK 35-66 (36-68)
Given the ongoing cost pressure and an underlying market which, while very solid in the long term, does not have any strong pent-up triggers, we lower our estimates slightly and thus our scenario-based fair value range. Our new fair value range is DKK 35-66 (36-68).
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