Q4 sales of SEK 73m were 118% y-o-y, 16% ahead of ABGSCe. However, this also included a SEK 19m inventory sale; adjusting for this, sales of SEK 54m were -15% vs. ABGSCe. Even so, this represented 13% sequential growth driven by recent order announcements. We believe that the lower-than-expected sales was due to recent supply chain disruptions, hurting deliveries of terminals. We find no reason for concern from this, as we estimate that these sales will come back in H1’22e. Furthermore, in connection with the Q4 report, Ovzon announced that the launch of Ovzon-3 has once again been postponed. It is now planned for H2’22. While we saw the likelihood for a Q2 Ovzon-3 launch as good, we also highlighted low visibility into that assessment. The delay stems from the current supply chain disruptions, where the availability of components remains scarce. Not only does this hurt Ovzon, but other satellite operators are also seeing setbacks (e.g. Eutelsat and Viasat). As Ovzon-3 is planned to be launched with a “co-passenger” (i.e. another satellite), this has impacted the launch.
‘22e sales up by 3% – we now forecast 42% growth in ‘22e
We raise our ‘22 sales estimate by 3% and continue to see strong sales growth (+42% y-o-y) amid recent order announcements. Due to the delays, however, we now forecast Ovzon-3 to start generating sales in Q3’23 (previously Q1’23). This leads to a 42% cut on ‘23e sales.
Sufficient available funds to reach FCF breakeven in ‘23e
In our view, the rescheduled launch date is an external issue that does not impact the demand for the company’s services or its long-term growth opportunities. Neither does it change our view of the likelihood of a successful launch. Ovzon ended Q4 with cash of SEK 406m and has used USD 35m of its USD 60m credit facility.
... Läs mer på Introduce
Aktuellt
SENASTE
