Ovzon: Orders stacking up for another strong year - ABG
* Strong Q4 on the cards: EBIT SEK 41m (SEK -18m Q4'24) * Slightly lowered Q4 assumptions, but '26e-'27e EBIT +7-5% * Still not at full capacity: 21x 2026e EV/EBIT
ANNONS
Strong backlog bodes well for Q4e
Following the SEK 1bn breakthrough order with the Swedish FMV in May, both Q2 and Q3 were strong quarters. We expect this trend to continue in Q4 given that the FMV order reached a normalised level by the end of Q3. While the US situation remains unclear (the US DoD has yet to extend its previous contract), other customers are more than compensating for this likely temporary loss. As such, we forecast Q4 sales of SEK 234m (+119% y-o-y), comprising SEK 169m in SATCOM sales and SEK 65m in terminal sales. On gross margins, we anticipate a negative impact on the sales mix due to the company's decision to transition the FMV contract to leased capacity, meaning that Ovzon-3 still has unsold capacity. Nevertheless, we see EBIT of SEK 41m, up from SEK -18m in Q4'24.
We push some Q4e revenue into 2026e
Following a quiet period in terms of orders, activity has recently increased, including a SEK 58m terminal order with FMV and an SEK 240m order with a European NATO customer. The latter is particularly significant, as it supports our 2026 estimates and diversifies the customer base, arguably putting pressure on other customer prospects to sign up to Ovzon-3, where current capacity is limited. However, the order does not contribute to Q4e, so we cut '25e EBIT by 7% but lift '26e-'27e by 7-5%. We would also like to highlight that Ovzon has benefited from the recent USD/SEK trends given the recent sales mix change.
Positive momentum continues
2025 has been an eventful year for Ovzon, with several highlights: 1) the signing of the SEK 1bn breakthrough order; 2) the refinancing of its debt (interest rates have been lowered from ~15% to ~4.5%); 3) a more diversified customer base; and 4) becoming profitable in terms of both EBIT and FCF. The stock is trading at 21x '26e EV/EBIT or a 6% FCF yield.
