Prevas: Margins improving as volumes stabilise - ABG
* We keep our estimates unchanged... * ...and expect ~10-11% adj. EBITA margins in '26e-'27e * Trading at 9-7x EV/EBITA on '26e-'27e, 15% below peers
ANNONS
Closing the year with a somewhat stable quarter
Prevas reported sales of SEK 432m, representing broadly flat y-o-y growth. This was supported by contributions from M&A and offset by an organic decline of 2%. Adj. EBITA came in at 35m, representing a margin of 8.1% (7.5% Q4'24), driven by continued cost control. Pricing pressure remains in the market, although we note selective price increases that have been implemented at a very gradual pace. Demand remained robust in Defence, where sales grew by ~30% y-o-y (now ~20% of total sales). This segment is characterised by established customer relationships and typically features longer project assignments. EPS for the quarter was SEK 1.67, and SEK 5.49 for '25 (7.13 in '24). Prevas suggested a DPS of SEK 4.00 for a 73% payout ratio, above its target range of 40-60%, supported by a strong balance sheet.
Estimates largely unchanged
We leave our sales and adj. EBITA estimates unchanged for '26e-'27e. While market conditions remain mixed, we see stabilising demand in Sweden and Finland. As demand improves, we expect personnel costs to increase, which explains why we keep our estimates in place despite the Q4 margin beat. For '26e-'27e, we expect sales to pick up and grow by 6-7%, and reaching adj. EBITA margins of 10-11% for the same period.
Valuation and view ahead
Prevas is trading at 9-7x EV/EBITA for '26e-'27e on our updated estimates. Looking ahead, Denmark remains a near-term challenge (sales decline of 20% y-o-y), while Finland stands out as a key growth driver following its turnaround (sales increase of 19% y-o-y), and also supports the group with improved margins. Sweden appears stable (flat y-o-y), with improving utilisation. Overall, we believe Prevas enters 2026 with a solid operational and financial situation, with promising margin expansion potential as volumes recover.
