Both sales and orders were solid in Pricer’s Q4, coming in 6% and 8%, respectively, above ABGSCe. While sales of SEK 488m corresponded to -28% y-o-y, this was due to a large share of BestBuy deliveries in Q4’20. We estimate that Q4 sales excl. BestBuy grew 34% y-o-y, with the main driver being CTDA that is currently accelerating its ESL deployments. Orders of SEK 453m was flat y-o-y, despite the fact that Pricer did not announce any orders in the quarter (vs. SEK 157m in Q4’20). Again, this was driven by CDTA. The gross margin, however, was weak at 20.2% (ABGSCe 20.3%), which in combination with higher opex than expected lead to EBIT of SEK 17m (3.5% margin), -25% vs. ABGSCe.
Gross margins should trough around current levels
We raise ‘22e-’23e sales by 5% following the strong orders. Particularly, we see good growth prospects in the Americas – a market that has grown well for Pricer over the past few years – but also for EMEA, where we understand that the potential deal with Carrefour (framework agreement since Nov’20, which could entail instalments in ~500 stores) has not yet been materialised. That said, we lower our gross margin assumptions for 2022e (from 22.6% to 21.0%) as freight rates and component costs remain elevated. Ultimately, this leads to a reduction of 10% to ‘22e EBIT, and 5% to ‘23e EBIT. On a positive note, we do not believe that gross margins will see further pressure from the current levels, whereas we see a trajectory of improvements from Q3’22e.
’21-‘24e sales CAGR of 15%
We forecast Pricer to deliver a ’21-‘24e CAGR in sales and EBIT of 15% and 38%, respectively, driven by its large installed base on a rapidly growing market. However, yesterday’s news of its (now former) CEO’s departure raises some near-term uncertainties until a new, permanent CEO has been announced. The share trades at 16 ... Läs mer på Introduce
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