* Memory prices could cause pre-buying in H1 and setback thereafter * Good earnings resilience, 8% adj. EBITA growth in 2026e * 7.2x 2026e EV/EBITA and good financial headroom
ANNONS
Effects from rising memory prices yet to be seen
Dell and NetApp have concluded price increases on storage products amid the rises in input costs, which Proact will pass on to customers as a re-seller. This therefore has a larger impact on the top line than the bottom line. Some customers may have tried to pre-buy products before the price increases, which could support volumes in Q1, while some may become more cautious about new orders, which instead would serve as a headwind. Another factor to have in mind is prolonged delivery times in the recent demand environment and the potential for inflated orders, which we will have limited insight into as Proact does not report orders but only recognises revenues at the time of delivery. We expect H1'26 volumes to be OK, supported by both some pre-buying and price increases, while there is a risk of a setback in system sales in H2'26 if delivery times move volumes into 2027. For Q1, we estimate 3% organic growth and adj. EBITA of SEK 85m, up 8% y-o-y for a margin of 6.9% (6.5%).
Reduced estimate visibility, but resilient earnings power
We make small positive adjustments to our organic growth estimates for system sales in H1'26, but small negative changes in H2, followed by somewhat higher ones in 2027e. However, we acknowledge that there are several moving parts, and the estimate risks are therefore high. Combined with good cost control, we see adj. EBITA growth throughout the whole of 2026e (+5-15% on quarterly basis and +8% full-year). All in all, we raise adj. EBITA by 1-2% in 2026e-28e including small positive FX effects.
Share at ~7x 2026e EV/EBITA
On our revised estimates, the share is trading at 7.2x 2026e EV/EBITA, 28% below peers, and Proact has the financial capability to pay dividends, buy back shares and acquire companies with its net cash balance sheet.
