Lost orders from two larger US customers (announced in Q2) continue to impact Probi, with organic growth down 9% y-o-y, below our expectations of +2%. While the firm previously expected the orders to be partly recovered, it now says they are unlikely to come back. The gross margin of 48.6% (ABGSCe 43.8%) stood out in Q4, offsetting lower sales and leading to adj. EBIT in line with expectations (0% vs ABGSCe). This is partly an effect of product mix and volumes in APAC, but has more to do with investments into the new US production facility allowing Probi to produce a higher share of orders in-house. EMEA had a good quarter (28% y-o-y), benefitting from new customer product launches, while APAC was impacted by a material customer order being pushed into ‘22.
Solid outlook for 2022 despite weaker 2021
With -1% organic growth, 2021 can be called an “off year”, and was characterised by the reversal of positive pandemic effects and a tougher US market. With many new, larger customers currently in the ramp-up phase, however, we think the ‘22 outlook remains solid. In EMEA, the Perrigo agreement contributed to 28% y-o-y growth in Q4, and remains set to launch in a majority of the 14 countries it spans. The first order from Oriflame was recently received, which could contribute materially as well during the year. Finally, production of Blis Technologies strains, which will broaden its offering to ear, nose and throat, starts in Q1’22; with marketing already ongoing, it could have a serious impact from H2’22e.
Share trading 6% below key Peer BioGaia on ’22e EV/EBIT
We raise our ’22-‘23e EBIT by 4-3% on FX (6%) and the higher gross margin. Underlying sales estimates are cut 4% on lower Americas sales. Probi ended 2021 with a net cash position of SEK 173m, and while our forecasts exclude M&A, we estima
... Läs mer på Introduce
Aktuellt
SENASTE
