US weaker in Q3; expect resumed group growth in 2023
Share trading at NTM EV/EBITA of 14x
Poor quarter in the Americas drives weak Q3
Probi delivered results in line with the pre-announced numbers on 10 October, with sales of SEK 145m, corresponding to a 9% decrease y-o-y (-22% organically), and an EBITDA margin of 25% (vs. 27% in Q3’21). Q3 was weaker than our estimates ahead of the pre-announced numbers, where we expected sales of SEK 173m and an EBITDA margin of 30%. The issues stemmed mostly from the Americas region, which declined 28% organically, a break from the stabilisation seen in Q2. Probi cited lower net sales in the LiveBac segment as the main cause, but also raw material shortages disrupting customer deliveries. In EMEA, revenues declined by 3%, with the Perrigo launch not yet living up to expectations. During the quarter, two new customer agreements were signed for launches in the next months, suggesting positive signs for the region. In APAC, market growth continues to outpace the group total, with 16% higher revenues (5% organically).