Qlosr - Q3 largely in line with expectations - ABG

Sales -4% vs ABGSCe Adj. EBITDA +11% vs ABGSCe We expect cons. to make minor revisions Q3’22 outcome Qlosr’s Q3’22 sales came in at SEK 124.4m (-4% vs ABGSCe SEK 130.0m), implying a y-o-y total growth rate of 357%. Adj. EBITDA was SEK 4.3m (+11% vs ABGSCe SEK 3.9m), corresponding to an adj. EBITDA margin of 3.5%, which is +50bps higher than ABGSCe. Q3’22 thoughts and takeaways On balance, the report was in line with our expectations. It is important to remember that Q3 is typically a somewhat weaker quarter due to the extensive summer holiday season in Sweden. That said, we have noticed a few interesting details: Firstly, recurring revenue stands for ~49% of sales, and that is higher than the 45% that was previously communicated for the year 2022e. Secondly, the company’s cash position came in better than expected, and that surprised us positively. Finally, the company noted that the last three companies that were acquired have already signed new agreements for subscription services in October, indicating that both the integration and transformation periods of the acquired entities are seemingly fast. Qlosr share trades at 7.4x ‘23e EV/EBITA The Qlosr share is trading at 7.4x ‘23e EV/EBITA on our unrevised estimates. Based on our first impressions of the report, we expect consensus to make minor changes to sales and EBITDA estimates, given that the mechanical effect is ~1%. The company will host a live broadcast to present the report at CET 11.00 at: https://youtu.be/_dtg6VqjcL0. Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier