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Randviken Fastigheter: Healthy growth valued below peers - ABG

Opportunistic approach and solid management team
Double-digit CEPS and EPRA NRV growth in 2022-24e
Trading ~30% below peers, fair value range SEK 66–79

Rational and opportunistic
Randviken was founded in 2017 and has been a public company since the reversed takeover of Raybased in 2021. The property portfolio as of Q4’21 amounted to ~SEK 6.5bn and consists of ~50% light industrial/logistics properties, with the rest being attributed to office (~20%), public (~20%) and other (~10%). The portfolio is geographically split between several growing regions/cities in Sweden and the target is to grow the portfolio to SEK 20bn by 2025. Randviken has an opportunistic approach in terms of acquisitions, with a strong focus on cash flows and residual value risk. The management team is strong and sound, in our opinion, and they do not try to complicate the business model more than necessary. Targeting smaller bolt-on acquisitions (~SEK 20m to SEK 100m a piece), Randviken aims to be able to acquire properties at a net initial yield (NIY) between 5% and 6%, with rent potential and/or solid tenants with long lease agreements (current WAULT of 6.3 years).

CEPS growth of ~19% p.a. with upside potential
Randviken carries out projects (e.g. Alstom in Västerås, ~10,000 sqm, estimated completion in 2023) when opportunities arise, but the main focus and key growth driver ahead will be acquisitions, in our view. We have included ~SEK 800m p.a. in template acquisitions, which still allows the net LTV to stay flat at ~55%, well below the company target of <65%. with a niy of ~4.8%, project contributions and acquisitions of sek 800m p.a. in 2023e and 2024e, we estimate ceps growth of ~19% p.a.>

~30% below peers
The share is trading at a ‘22e P/IFPM of ~14.5x and P/NAV of 0.87x. This is ~20% below opportunistic peers such as Balder and Nyfosa, and ~38% below logistics/industrial peers such as Catena and Stendörren. We believe Randviken will be able to outgrow most peers in the coming years, but the risks, incl. lower portfolio and tenant diversification and shorter interest maturity, are slightly higher than in several ot 65%.> ...
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