Our earnings bridge
We expect Q1 clean EBIT of ~SEK 37m, up from SEK -100m in Q4'23 but down from SEK 149m in Q1'23. The main effects q-o-q are likely: SEK +62m from higher pulp prices (NBSK +12% and BHKP +25%), SEK +20m from higher volumes, SEK -12m from FX, SEK -1m from pulp price hedges, SEK -1m from wood costs (prices relatively stable), SEK -1m from higher chemical and distribution costs (caustic soda price up ~10% q-o-q in Western Europe), and SEK +70m in maintenance reversals. We arrive at Q1 clean EBIT of ~SEK 37m. Q2 will likely be stronger than Q1, driven by higher pulp prices and better volumes. We expect Q2 clean EBIT of SEK 50-80m.
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