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Rovio: Focus on the launch of Darkfire Heroes - Nordea

The upcoming launch of action RPG title Darkfire Heroes in April will be the most important trigger for the share in the short term. If successful, the game could diversify Rovio's game portfolio and add credibility to its M&A strategy, given that it has been developed by Copenhagen-based Darkfire Games, which Rovio acquired in 2020. Further acquisitions could follow in 2021. The actual sales figures in Q1 could disappoint, however. According to a data sample provided by the Reflection analytics service, Rovio’s games' gross bookings declined by 21% y/y in Q1 compared to the consensus expectation of roughly flat group sales y/y. We lower our fair value range to EUR 6.0-7.7 (6.5-8.3) owing to the negative signal from this data. Marketing material commissioned by Rovio.

The upcoming launch of action RPG title Darkfire Heroes in April will be the most important trigger for the share in the short term. If successful, the game could diversify Rovio's game portfolio and add credibility to its M&A strategy, given that it has been developed by Copenhagen-based Darkfire Games, which Rovio acquired in 2020. Further acquisitions could follow in 2021. The actual sales figures in Q1 could disappoint, however. According to a data sample provided by the Reflection analytics service, Rovio’s games' gross bookings declined by 21% y/y in Q1 compared to the consensus expectation of roughly flat group sales y/y. We lower our fair value range to EUR 6.0-7.7 (6.5-8.3) owing to the negative signal from this data. Marketing material commissioned by Rovio.
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