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Rovio: Improvements to AB games are paying off - Nordea

Games' sales in Q1 were 7% above our estimate and alleviated concerns about declining sales after the pandemic, which partially boosted the gaming market in 2020. Instead, it seems that the improvements rolled out to Rovio's older games in the past two years have been able to extend the lifetime values for those games, the best example of which is AB Friends, whose sales grew by 45% y/y in Q1. Management had an upbeat tone on Rovio's most recently launched game, Darkfire Heroes. The scale-up will increase Rovio's UA per sales to 30% in Q2, which will burden profitability in the short term but could support revenue growth in the long term. We increase our fair value range to EUR 6.9-8.9 (6.0-7.7), owing to the good sales growth for Rovio's existing game portfolio.

Games' sales in Q1 were 7% above our estimate and alleviated concerns about declining sales after the pandemic, which partially boosted the gaming market in 2020. Instead, it seems that the improvements rolled out to Rovio's older games in the past two years have been able to extend the lifetime values for those games, the best example of which is AB Friends, whose sales grew by 45% y/y in Q1. Management had an upbeat tone on Rovio's most recently launched game, Darkfire Heroes. The scale-up will increase Rovio's UA per sales to 30% in Q2, which will burden profitability in the short term but could support revenue growth in the long term. We increase our fair value range to EUR 6.9-8.9 (6.0-7.7), owing to the good sales growth for Rovio's existing game portfolio.
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