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We expect Rovio's Games gross bookings to decline by 9% y/y organically in Q4, broadly in line with the mobile gaming market's growth. The softening macroeconomic backdrop and continued headwinds from Apple's app tracking transparency changes create uncertainty for the mobile gaming market for 2023, but we consider Rovio to be relatively well positioned thanks to its strong IP, wide-appeal casual game portfolio, compelling launch pipeline and robust cash generation. Moreover, the high cash pile (year-end 2022E: EUR 126m) allows shareholder remuneration and it could be used to capture distressed M&A opportunities in combination with treasury shares. Our fair value range for Rovio stands at EUR 6.5-7.8 per share, corresponding to 6.5x-8.3x 2023E EV/EBITDA. Marketing material commissioned by Rovio.
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