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Rovio’s Q3 revenue and adjusted EBIT beat Infront consensus estimates by 2% and 40% respectively. Games revenue grew above our expectations by +5% y/y organically (+6% in Q2) and UA costs were in line with our estimate of EUR 18.1m at 26% of Games revenue after 32% in Q2 21 and 24% in Q3 20. Rovio kept its outlook unchanged, continuing to provide no numerical guidance. Despite good Q3 numbers, we believe that consensus revenue estimates could see low-single-digit downgrades given that Darkfire Heroes (launched in April 2021) has been moved into maintenance mode following its unsatisfactory performance. On an adjusted EBIT level, the Q3 beat itself represents 12% upside to consensus 2021 figures, but 2022-23 estimates are likely to move up by a more limited extent.
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