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Rovio: Taking a look into early data of recently launched Darkfire Heroes - Nordea

Rovio launched an action-packed strategy RPG title Darkfire Heroes (DH) on 16 April. We take a look into early data of its revenue and download figures provided by Reflection.io analytics service. Based on the data and a set of assumptions, we estimate that the game has reached annual gross revenue run-rate of at least EUR 3.8m during the first week after the launch. We have estimated that DH could reach gross bookings of EUR 5.3m in Q4 2021 (meaning annual run-rate of 21.2m).

DH has so far seen slightly higher gross bookings figures compared to more casual title Sugar Blast when launched in September 2019. DH is however still lagging stronger benchmarks like Angry Birds Dream Blast or Battle Bay which were boosted by significant user acquisition (UA) investments and other factors at the time of publication, we believe.

We note that Rovio has communicated that they plan to scale-up Darkfire Heroes gradually with cautious UA spend in the beginning given that DH is their first title in the genre. We conclude that the initial sales figures are unlikely to be a significant trigger for the share and a longer time horizon is required to judge the commercial success of the game. Rovio could give additional information about the launch in conjunction with its Q1 report that will be released on 29 April.
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