Rovio is set to achieve exceptional earnings growth in 2020. We expect EBIT to be up ~170% from 2019 due to lower user acquisition costs and a stable game portfolio. Since the end of 2019, the share is up a considerable 47%, but after the step up in profitability and ~10% share buy back programme, we find the share still attractively valued. Looking ahead to 2021, we identify multiple potential triggers that could justify a rerating of the share. We believe the current valuation reflects an undemanding scenario for 2021-22 and we see the risk/reward as attractive. We maintain our DCF and relative valuation-based fair value range of EUR 6.4-8.2. Marketing material commissioned by Rovio.
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