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Sdiptech: Strong organic growth - Nordea

The Q4 report was slightly above our expectations when adjusting for earn-outs & divestments. Sales came in 6% above us and was 1% better on EBITA* than we expected. Organic sales increased 13% (and another ~11 pp from M&A and FX) and organic EBITA* up 35% (+52% in total, meaning that 17 pp is M&A and FX). Cash conversion was an issue in H1 but is now at 92% which is encouraging. The FY 2021 EBITA* margin of 18.7% is slightly below the guided 19-20% range, but up 2.1 pp y/y, and the new guidance is “around 20%" (up from 19-20% previously). Order intake is "strong” according to the CEO. For segments, W&E beat our forecast by 8% on EBITA* but SIS missed by -1%, with weaker than expected margins in both. Estimate revisions: at this moment we expect to make only minor positive revisions, of 2-3% for sales and 1-2% for EBITA* in the years ahead. We think the market today will focus on the stellar organic earnings growth and thus for the share to outperform the market.

The Q4 report was slightly above our expectations when adjusting for earn-outs & divestments. Sales came in 6% above us and was 1% better on EBITA* than we expected. Organic sales increased 13% (and another ~11 pp from M&A and FX) and organic EBITA* up 35% (+52% in total, meaning that 17 pp is M&A and FX). Cash conversion was an issue in H1 but is now at 92% which is encouraging. The FY 2021 EBITA* margin of 18.7% is slightly below the guided 19-20% range, but up 2.1 pp y/y, and the new guidance is “around 20%" (up from 19-20% previously). Order intake is "strong” according to the CEO. For segments, W&E beat our forecast by 8% on EBITA* but SIS missed by -1%, with weaker than expected margins in both. Estimate revisions: at this moment we expect to make only minor positive revisions, of 2-3% for sales and 1-2% for EBITA* in the years ahead. We think the market today will focus on the stellar organic earnings growth and thus for the share to outperform the market.
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