2021 was a transformative year for Seafire, with sales of SEK 421m, up 90% y-o-y, of which 8% organic. During ‘21, Seafire added four companies to the group, taking the total number of companies to nine at year-end. In ’22 YTD, two additional companies have been added to the group; besides adding volume, the acquisitions also lower Seafire’s dependency of one specific company, thus increasing the diversification in the group. With Seafire’s strengthened management team, strong M&A pipeline and ‘22e ND/EBITDA of 1.8x, the company has room to add 15-35% to our ‘22e adj. EBITA estimates, given acquisition multiplies of 6x EV/EBITA and max leverage of 2.5-3.5x.
‘22e-‘23e est. up on higher org. growth assumptions
We raise our ’22e-‘23e sales and adj. EBITA estimates by 4% and 3%, respectively, due to higher organic growth assumptions. For example, Linguacom (segment Retail & Services) recently announced several interpretation and translation contracts with different municipalities and the Swedish Public Employment Service, driving organic growth. Looking ahead, we estimate a 62% ‘21e-‘24e adj. EBITA CAGR, partly driven by the five latest acquisitions, of which four (Pexymek, Bara Mineraler, DOFAB and Kenpo) have been highly margin-accretive.
Trading at 12x ‘22e EV/EBITA
Seafire is trading at 12x ‘22e EV/EBITA, in line with our peer group. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 37-57 per share, corresponding to 13-19x ‘22e EV/EBITA.
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