Q4 sales were SEK 29.6m (0% vs. ABGSCe 29.6m), in line with the company’s preliminary figures released on 17 January. EBIT was SEK 7.8m (-10% vs. ABGSCe 8.6m) for a margin of 26% (ABGSCe 29%). A dividend for 2021 of SEK 5.00 (ABGSCe 5.00) per share was proposed, of which SEK 0.50 is EO dividend, for a ’21 payout ratio of 108%. Installation revenues in Q4 were strong, but still down y-o-y on very tough comps. Series Production has been largely stable in recent quarters, and customers bypassing the typical December shutdowns to meet market demand saw this trend continue in Q4 as well. That said, management added that ’21 Series Production volumes were impacted by approximately 10% due to supply chain disruptions, implying engine equivalents would have been ~3.4m otherwise.
Production backlog should drive growth in ’22e-’23e
We make smaller negative estimate revisions following the Q4 numbers, and lower our ’22e-’23e EBIT estimates by 2%. Management continues to emphasise that they expect recovering supply chains to drive double-digit growth in Series Production, and we believe growth will be highest from H2’22e onwards, as we see continued supply chain issues affecting customers’ production negatively in H1’22e.
22x ’22e EV/EBIT, 5-7%, dividend yield for ‘22e-‘23e
On our current estimates, the share is now trading at 22x ’22e EV/EBIT, offering 5-7% ’22e-’23e dividend yield. We argue that while ’21 saw significant y-o-y improvements, market conditions still stand to improve further in ’22e-’23e. As such, we keep our fair value range of SEK 130-230 per share despite slightly lower estimates.
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