Sales were SEK 29.6m (0% vs. ABGSCe 29.6m), which was in line with the preliminary figures released by the company on 17 January. Annualised engine equivalents were 3.1m (ABGSCe 3.1m), +19% y-o-y, marking three consecutive quarters above 3m engine equivalents, following five quarters that were below 3m. EBIT was SEK 7.8m (-10% vs. ABGSCe 8.6m) for a margin of 26% (ABGSCe 29%). For 2021, an ordinary dividend of SEK 4.50 (4.00) per share and an EO dividend of SEK 0.50 per share has been proposed (ABGSCe DPS SEK 5.00). We had a gotten a fairly good idea of the report outcome considering the preliminary figures released by the company. As was mentioned in the figures, Q4 saw a strong finish for installation revenues and stable series production volumes. Margins, however, turned out to be slightly below our expectations.
Estimate changes and outlook
The isolated Q4 numbers would imply very minor negative estimate revisions of 1-2% on EBIT for ’22e-’23e. However, we are reassured by management reiterating their outlook for double-digit growth in Series Production, driven in part by pent-up market demand, recovering supply chains, and the pending start of commercial vehicle production at the Scania and FAW facilities.
Final thoughts and valuation
On our pre-Q4 estimates, the share is trading at 22x ’22e EV/EBIT, which falls to 16x in ’23e. The company has a history of paying out ~100% of EPS as dividends, and assuming this continues we estimate 5-7% dividend yield for ’22e-’23e.
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