Bildkälla: Stockfoto

Sparekassen Kronjylland: Low loan losses despite high management buffer - Nordea

Sparekassen Kronjylland reported H2 2020 profit before loan losses of DKK 183m, which was DKK 11m (7%) ahead of our estimate. This was mainly led by better-than-expected market value adjustments and lower costs, while net fee income was slightly below our estimate. The key positive in the report was loan losses of only DKK ~6m, which was DKK 69m (93%) below our forecast. The underlying asset quality hence remains solid and at the end of 2020 the bank had a management buffer of DKK 279m in loan loss provisions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This corresponds to ~1.7% of the total lending book, which is among the highest in the sector.

As vaccinations are rolled out during 2021, we expect an improvement in market conditions during the year. As part of the government support packages, the VAT payment deadlines have been postponed, which has caused less usage of credit lines among business customers. We also get the impression that both retail and business customers have held back on spending and investments, causing a lower need for new lending. When the pandemic ends, we could thus easily see higher lending growth in the market, which could also cause less intensive competition on margins.

We raise 2021E-22E pre-tax profit by 4-8%, mainly led by lower loan loss estimates. We leave 2021E-22E profit before losses roughly unchanged, as we marginally lower both income and cost estimates. Sparekassen Kronjylland expects 2021 pre-tax profit of DKK 240-300m. We estimate DKK 287m, and note that the bank historically has been fairly cautious on guidance. Despite headwind from the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 pre-tax profit came in at DKK 278m, which was actually in the upper end of the initial 2020 guidance for DKK 240-300m. This was also ~55% above the top of the updated guidance range of DKK 140-180m from the H1 2020 report.
Börsvärldens nyhetsbrev
ANNONSER