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SRV Group: Upgrade to BUY - Evli Research

One-offs affected profitability, good construction margins

SRV’s revenue in Q2 grew 28% y/y to EUR 265.0m for a slight expectations beat (EUR 243.4m/243.0m Evli/cons.). The operative operating profit was at EUR 0.5m (Evli 3.8m), affected by an EUR 3.1m provision for expenses recognized due to a ruling by a Russian court as well as recovery programme costs and costs stemming from impacts of the coronavirus. Construction profitability was good and slightly better than expected, with an operative operating profit margin of 2.8% (Evli 2.6%). The effects of the coronavirus were limited, although some additional costs were incurred, and housing sales were slower during April-May. Shopping centres were also affected and in Russia a large share of stores were and remain closed due to restrictions.

20-22E EBIT estimates raised by some 5-10%

We have post-Q2 raised our 20-22E EBIT estimates by some 5-10%, prompted by a fairly good H1/20 order intake and slightly raised construction margin expectations. The coronavirus pandemic continues to pose a risk, but current recovery prospects in Finland and a higher share of housing units sold to investors in the construction portfolio remain supportive factors.

BUY (HOLD) with a target price of EUR 0.66 (0.64)

Uncertainty of shopping centre exits has increased due to the pandemic and will most likely be delayed, with Pearl Plaza discussions already having been in late stages. On our 21-22E estimates and peer multiples, current valuation levels in our view essentially appear to only assign a value to SRV’s construction operations. We upgrade our rating to BUY (HOLD) with a target price of EUR 0.66 (0.64).
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