Svedbergs Group: Looking forward to the move - ABG
* EBITA margin +20bp y-o-y supported by price adjustments * Warehouse move could offset opex inflation from Q4'26 * We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 55-75
ANNONS
Defends margins through price
Demand differed significantly across markets in Q1, although most saw a deceleration. The end of expanded ROT deductions looks like it adversely affected Swedish exposure, as country sales decelerated from growth of 23% in Q4 to -3%. Commentary from management suggests the ROT impact is already behind us. Thebalux grew 9% organically, with improved margins. Svedbergs Group's gross margin expansion continued in Q1, by 320bp y-o-y. In addition to positive effects from price adjustments, the company also highlighted lower input costs. We expect raw material prices to gradually increase, but also argue that the Group can likely offset this through price increases, as it has previously. What also became clear was the reason for Roper Rhodes' H2'26 warehouse move. The expanded assortment and organic growth has resulted in a fulfilment setup split between several (costly) 3PL suppliers. The SG&A ratio thus expanded by 190bp. The new warehouse should offset these additional costs over time.
We raise '26e-'28e EBITA by 1-2%
We take a more cautious stance on Svedbergs' recovery considering the soft demand in Q1, and lower sales for the brand by 3% '26e-'28e. We raise Thebalux margin forecasts on the better production efficiency. We also raise our gross margin estimates and SG&A ratio forecasts, reflecting Q1 trends. Overall, we increase 2026e–28e EBITA by 1–2%.
Trading at 11x-9.5x our '26e-'27e EBITA
Svedbergs Group is currently trading at 11x our '26e EBITA or 14x our '26e P/E. This can be compared to its L5Y multiples of 9x and 11x NTM, respectively, or a Nordic peer group P/E around 14x. We leave our fair value range of SEK 55-75 unchanged considering our limited estimate changes.
