* We forecast -3% EBITA growth in Q4'25 on a tough comp * 8% EBITA growth shows resilience in tough 2025e * We raise our fair value range to SEK 55-75 (50-66)
ANNONS
We expect EBITA growth of -3% y-o-y
Svedbergs Group meets the toughest EBITA growth comp of 2025 in its Q4, and the first organic growth comp in 10 quarters. We expect a slight deceleration to org. growth of 5% vs 7% in Q3'25, driven primarily by tougher comps in Roper Rhodes and soft market data: with one quarter left of the year CPA lowered its '25 RM&I growth forecasts for the UK market by 2pp. We expect further gross margin gains to be partly offset by further opex hikes related to increased sales efforts, just as in YTD Q3'25. We forecast EBITA of SEK 79m, -3% y-o-y, which corresponds to a financial targets-aligned 15% EBITA margin. We expect the Svedbergs Group board to propose a dividend of SEK 1.75 (SEK 1.5 for 2024), ~50% of our '25e EPS, in line with the payout ratio of last year.
Ready for market recovery
Despite clear FX headwinds, Svedbergs Group looks set to deliver 8% EBITA growth in '25e on 2% net sales growth. With the Dalstorp production facility upgraded, we expect strong Nordic incremental EBITA margins should primary housing markets start performing better. We have previously noted that the Swedish housing agency has estimated a need for ~twice the number of Swedish build starts. Without this recovery (or M&A) in our numbers, we forecast 6% EBITA growth in '26e.
We raise fair value range to SEK 55-75 (50-66)
The Svedbergs Group share has performed well in the last year, delivering a price return of ~70%, and is now trading at 11x '26e EBITA. We believe part of the reason is that Svedbergs' M&A agenda has resulted in a larger group, which allows for larger institutional interest in addition to lower risk due to a geographically diverse business. We adjust our fair value range to SEK 55-75 (50-66), corresponding to 9x-12x '26e EV/EBITA.
