Taaleri: Q4 well in line with consensus expectations – Dividend proposal well ahead of expectations - Nordea

Taaleri reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 6.9m, coming well in line with LSEG Data & Analytics consensus at EUR 7.0m. Based on segment reporting, Q4 total income was EUR 17.7m, 16% below our estimate due to no carry bookings in Q4. Recurring revenues were EUR 9.9m in Q4, 12% below our estimate. Fair value changes of investments were EUR 0.5m in Q4 (we had anticipated EUR 2.5m), burdened by non-strategic investments fair values. Investment operations income of EUR 7.8m came well above our estimate of EUR 2.7m, driven mainly by EUR 5.5m related to renewable energy projects in Texas. In addition, the company recorded EUR 1.3m invoicing related to renewable energy projects with corresponding costs in operating expenses. The company did not book any carry in Q4 (we expected EUR 7.1m). Private asset management EBIT came 53% below our estimate mainly due to lower carry. On underlying basis, cost base in Renewable energy was slightly lower than we had anticipated, while other private asset management cost were above. Private asset management recurring revenues came 5% below our estimate. Garantia’s claims ratio increased in Q4 (17.6%) while insurance service revenue was down 17% y/y to EUR 4.6m, in line with our estimate. Combined ratio was 42% in Q4 (22% in Q3), above our estimate of 29.8%. Solvency was at 246% and should allow solid dividend for Taaleri. Dividend proposal of EUR 1.00 came well ahead of consensus expectation of EUR 0.46. Private asset management AuM was flat q/q at EUR 2.6bn 3% below our estimate of EUR 2.7bn. SolarWind III had its second closing in Q4 with EUR 430m of commitments and the company continues fundraising until at least end of 2024. Taaleri targets EUR 700m of commitments for SW III (we have modelled EUR 700m in 2025E). On initial take, we expect consensus to make only muted estimate revision to its underlying estimates, while we note higher-than-expected dividend proposal.