Taaleri: Strong recurring revenue growth in Q4 - Nordea

Taaleri reported Q4 EBIT of EUR 14.7m, coming -8% and +1% versus Refinitiv consensus and Nordea, respectively. If adjusting for EUR 1.8m one-off payment related to termination of the previous CEO’s contract, Q4 EBIT would have been 3% above the consensus. Total income from segment reporting was EUR 29.4m and 29% above Nordea estimate. Recurring revenues were EUR 11.4m in Q4, beating our estimate by 36%. Fair value changes of investments were EUR 7.4m in Q4, while we had anticipated EUR 5.6m. Carry from private asset management was EUR 10.6m, while we had anticipated EUR 8.7m. Garantia’s loan losses continued at a low level while premiums increased by 50% y/y, well above our estimate. Combined ratio was 39.9% in Q4 and beat clearly our estimate of 55.6%. Private asset management AuM was up 35% y/y to EUR 2.2bn (EUR 1.7bn a year ago). Dividend proposal of EUR 1.20 beat consensus expectation of EUR 0.99 and incl udes EUR 0.80 extra dividend. On initial take, we expect flattish estimate revision as there seems to be some timing shifts in income and costs. We have a fair value range of EUR 11.9-13.9 per Taaleri share.