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Talenom; Q3 report expectations - Danske Bank

We expect a good Q3. Back in Q2, sales growth was 12% with some negative impact from volume-based business (less payslips sent due to temporary layoffs in Finland), but margins were strong. We expect similar development in H2 20. There is limited external data on this market, but in the past months we have read that bankruptcies in Finland have not escalated, which is positive for Talenom. The company's business is defensive and the main risk would be widespread customer bankruptcies, but this does not seem likely. Talenom is set to announce the solution for small customer segment in connection with the Q3 results. In the past weeks, notable newsflow includes a small acquisition and CEO buying 25,000 shares on 25 September, which in our view is a positive signal.

Our estimates. Talenom guides 2020E sales of EUR 64-68m (+10-17%) and EBIT of EUR 12-14m (+15-35%), which for H2 implies 13% sales growth at mid-point. We estimate 11% y/y sales growth for Q3 and 22% EBIT growth (to EUR 5.5m from EUR 4.5m). We expect some slowdown in growth due to COVID-19 slowing down sales processes, but acceleration again after Q3.

Valuation and view on the shares. We continue to see Talenom as one of the best growth cases in Finland, with multiple drivers for continued double-digit revenue growth for many years, including (1) further market share gains in their core segment, accounting services for companies in Finland with revenues of EUR 0.4-10m, where market share is probably 10% compared to some 5% of the overall market; (2) entry to even smaller customer segment of <EUR 0.4m in revenues expanding addressable market in Finland; (3) international growth in Sweden and possibly other countries; and (4) new services to further monetise the existing customer base (most importantly, financing services). Valuation has increased following the shares' +37% YTD gain, but valuation is not a reason to turn negative on the case, where outlook remains good, in our view. We estimate 2020E EV/EBIT of 33x, 2021E of 27x and 2022E of 23x. These compare to e.g. Enento (with much lower growth profile) trading at 30x 2020E and 23x 2021E.
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