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Tempest Security: Short-term challenge, long-term opportunity - SEB

We forecast Q2 sales of SEK 118m and adjusted EBITDA of SEK 5.8m, corresponding to a margin of 5%. We have made small downward revisions on both sales and adjusted EBITDA, mainly on the back of a subdued short-term outlook for the Risk Solutions segment. We have lowered our DCF-based mid-point value to SEK 36 (38). We highlight our M&A scenario, which implies an attractive valuation of 3-4x 2025E EV/Adj. EBITDA.

We forecast Q2 sales of SEK 118m and adjusted EBITDA of SEK 5.8m, corresponding to a margin of 5%. We have made small downward revisions on both sales and adjusted EBITDA, mainly on the back of a subdued short-term outlook for the Risk Solutions segment. We have lowered our DCF-based mid-point value to SEK 36 (38). We highlight our M&A scenario, which implies an attractive valuation of 3-4x 2025E EV/Adj. EBITDA.
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