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Tethys Oil: No imminent trigger in Thameen-1 - ABG

Q2 on the soft side, but limited revisions
No imminent trigger in Thameen-1
Discounts oil at USD 47/bbl

Tethys Oil reported Q2’21 production of 11,030boe/d, close to ABGSce at 10,949boe/d. However, EBITDA of USD 14.5m was on the soft, at 8% below ABGSCe of USD 15.8m, and 9% below FactSet consensus of USD 16m due to a lower than anticipated realized price. We lower our 2021 EBITDA by 4% to reflect the miss, but we have not made any other underlying revisions, as the FY capex guidance was reiterated and our production estimate of 11,885boe/d is in line with the communication that Tethys Oil’s production in H2’21 will hopefully be above the H1’21 average of 11,306boe/d. ’22-’23 estimates are unchanged.

We estimate that Tethys Oil discounts a Brent oil price around USD 47/bbl (P/NAV of 1.0x at 12% WACC) with a strong balance sheet with SEK 17/sh in net cash at YE’21e. Our SOTP reflects reserves and resources identified, although in this context it is important to keep in mind that Tethys has been successful in growing 2P reserves every year since 2011.
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