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Tethys Oil: Q2 EBITDA on the soft side - ABG

EBITDA 9% below cons
Unconventional approach likely on Thameen-1
Report unlikely to trigger meaningful ’21 revisions

Tethys Oil reported Q2’21 production of 11,030boe/d, close to ABGSce at 10,949boe/d. EBITDA of USD 14.5m, 8% below ABGSCe at USD 15.8m, and 9% below cons at USD 16m. FCF of USD 4.9m was below ABGSCe at USD 14.8m, however as we had expected USD 8m WC release in the quarter we view this as timing.

Based on analysis of the Thameen-1 exploration Tethys now state that stimulation of the well could be required to flow the well, and that an unconventional approach could be considered. Consequently, we do not expect to see production contribution from the well in the medium term.

While not providing a detailed guiding for volume, Tethys now states that they hope H2’21 production will exceed production in H1’21 of 11,306boe/d. This is in line with our current estimates, as we are at 11,885boe/d for H2’21e. Full year capex guidance is reiterated. At first sight we do not anticipate to see meaningful estimate revisions to consensus following the report. Tethys Oil will host a conference call today at 10:00CET
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