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Transtema: Another step in the right direction - Nordea

Transtema delivered organic growth of 2.5% in Q4 2020 and while this is still a ways off from what we expect in 2021, it is the first time the company has shown organic growth since 2017. EBITDA margins were on the low side versus our estimates, mainly as a result of lower-than-expected revenues, but cost control remained solid despite the fact that the company is in the early stages of ramping up the Telia contract. Heading into 2021, we expect Transtema to deliver 18% organic growth with an adjusted EBITA margin of 4.3%, which translates to adjusted EBITA of SEK 69m. With the company now hiring in advance of potential 5G contracts, we think there could be some upside to our estimates.

The share is valued at ~10x 2021E (a discount of 23% versus peers), whereas our valuation range implies 10-12x. We raise our DCF-based valuation range to SEK 14.3-17.4 (13.1-16.0).

Marketing material commissioned by Transtema Group AB.
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