Verbio Ver.Bioenergie: FY25/26: Strong cash generation confirms the turnaround - NuWays AG Research
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Verbio Ver.Bioenergie: FY25/26: Strong cash generation confirms the turnaround - NuWays AG Research

*Q4 EBITDA reached € 88m, driven by ethanol spreads and GHG quota prices.
*FY26/27 guidance of € 210–250m is in line with our forecast at the midpoint.
*Cash flow recovery supports the dividend return; the October CMD offers further catalysts.

VERBIO reported strong Q4 and FY25/26 results, broadly in line with its preliminary figures and our estimates. Q4 EBITDA reached € 88.2m, compared with a loss of € 8.2m in Q4 FY24/25 and EBITDA of € 60.2m in Q3, bringing FY EBITDA to € 193.9m from € 14.2m a year earlier.

The Capital Markets Day on 8 October should provide greater visibility on value beyond the near- term recovery. As discussed in our initiation, we expect further detail on the commercial rollout and medium-term earnings potential of renewable chemicals. We will also look for an update on the Nippon Gases CO2 capture facility at Zörbig, which began operating in September 2025 and remains in ramp-up. At full utilisation, we estimate that its CO2 savings could have a gross value of c. € 30m p.a. The partners are also studying an extension of the cooperation to Schwedt, where we estimate the potential CO2 savings could be roughly four times greater, although the project remains at an early stage. Further clarity on the potential benefit of US Section 45Z tax credits would provide another catalyst.

We reiterate BUY with a € 41 PT, based on average FY27/28–FY28/29 FCFY.
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