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Vow: Temporary margin bite hides future potential - Nordea

Vow's H1 results showed encouraging performance in both the Maritime and Aftersales divisions; however, the limelight was taken by a very soft Industrial segment, which drove group EBITDA down by over 40% y/y. We adjust our model to account primarily for the Industrial segment's results and an uptick in corporate costs (we lower 2023 EBITDA by 33%), although we stress that the lumpy nature of the Industrial financials is short term, with a rebound on the cards. Our estimate changes result in a lowering of our fair value range to 34-39, although we highlight significant upside with the established Maritime segment covering the entirety of current share levels. With strong Industrial datapoints to come and long-term financing in place, we believe the future looks bright for Vow. Therefore, we see a good entry point once the dust settles. Marketing material commissioned by Vow.

Vow's H1 results showed encouraging performance in both the Maritime and Aftersales divisions; however, the limelight was taken by a very soft Industrial segment, which drove group EBITDA down by over 40% y/y. We adjust our model to account primarily for the Industrial segment's results and an uptick in corporate costs (we lower 2023 EBITDA by 33%), although we stress that the lumpy nature of the Industrial financials is short term, with a rebound on the cards. Our estimate changes result in a lowering of our fair value range to 34-39, although we highlight significant upside with the established Maritime segment covering the entirety of current share levels. With strong Industrial datapoints to come and long-term financing in place, we believe the future looks bright for Vow. Therefore, we see a good entry point once the dust settles. Marketing material commissioned by Vow.
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