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Nolato: Positive Q4 guidance for Integrated Solutions - ABG

Q3 EBITA of SEK 339m (3% vs. cons. at SEK 329m)
Estimates raised on positive Q4 guidance
20x ’22e EV/EBITA, >30% below M&A compounders

Sales were SEK 3,033m (+2% vs. ABGSCe 2,988m, +1% vs. cons. 2,996m), up 21% y-o-y (16% organic). Adj. EBITA was SEK 339m (+3% vs. ABGSCe 329m, +3% vs. cons 329m) for a margin of 11.2% (ABGSCe 11.0%, cons. 11.0%). Integrated Solutions saw strong growth during the quarter (39% organic), boosted somewhat by its largest customer stocking up on inventories. Meanwhile, Medical Solutions continues to be hampered by lower activity in elective surgeries and declined 4% organically, with Nolato adding that these issues should continue into Q4. Industrial Solutions also had a difficult quarter (-4% organic growth), with production stops among customers holding back sales and earnings. What we find most interesting, however, is that the company guides for relatively flat q-o-q sales for Integrated Solutions in Q4 (implying ~65% y-o-y growth in Q4 for the segment. The Q4 guidance for Integrated Solutions is 19% above our expectation.

The share is currently trading at 20x ’21e EV/EBITA, 31% below M&A compounders with similar financial performance. The company has had a 17% EBITA CAGR since 2012 and the ’21e M&A headroom of SEK 5bn is enough to facilitate a 20% EBITA CAGR ’20-’23e. However, Nolato can be considered riskier than the compounders due its more concentrated end-market exposure. As such, we apply a ’22e EV/EBITA range 15-40% below the compounder median to derive a fair value range of SEK 100-140 (85-115) per share.
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