Slower momentum in Sweden and Norway
We expect Q4 to be weaker than Q3 in terms of organic growth (0% vs. +3% in Q3) due to the slower momentum in Sweden continuing in Q4 (-3% Q4'24e) and the mild start of the winter in both Sweden and Norway (2% Q4'24e). Together with an active M&A agenda (+9% addition to sales) and some tailwinds from FX, this yields sales of SEK 1,801m, +9% y-o-y. Although the challenging project in Sweden is finalised in Q3, we expect some closing costs in Q4 before it is behind us entirely. As such, we forecast adj. EBITA of SEK 182m, +10% y-o-y (we est. -2% organic), for a margin of 10.1% (10.0% Q4'23). This is due to a ~7% margin in Sweden and the normalisation of margins in Norway (~12%) and Rest of Europe (~18%). Finally, recent M&A has lifted YE'24e ND/EBITDA to 2.8x, but solid cash flow (~40-70% of EBITA '24e-'26e) and higher earnings mean that M&A headroom remains into 2025e-2026e.
Aktuellt
SENASTE
