The start of 2025 was weaker than market consensus (LSEG) expected. The EMS market could be in waiting mode with brand owners wanting to lower inventories in the case of a possible economic downturn. Reflecting the continued market uncertainty, we also lower our estimates. Our downgraded estimates indicate only a small y/y improvement in net sales and EBIT for 2025. We conclude that without a clear recovery in end demand, Incap's full-year guidance could come under pressure in July. Our fair value range for the Incap share remains at EUR 12.1-14.8, based on our DCF analysis and backed by a peer group comparison. Incap's valuation is below that of the peer group but rerating of valuation multiples is unlikely to happen before a clear positive earnings momentum is regained. Marketing material commissioned by Incap.
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