Green Landscaping Group (GLG) delivered a soft Q1 with sales 9/12% below ABGSCe/FactSet cons. Organic sales were -18% (ABGSCe -12%, cons. -11%, -6% Q4'24), due to less snow removal. Adj. EBITA fell 77% y-o-y, ~60% below expectations, as Norway (-1.8% margin) was more weather dependent than expected. GLG now aims to reduce this weather dependence; in Sweden, the same efforts in '20 led to resilient Q1'25 margins (6.2%) despite a mild winter. Rest of Europe remained solid (11.8%), also when adj. for a capital gain (19m, 2.1% adj. margin) due to a positive mix. Although the market remains tough, we expect 2-4% organic growth together with improving margins and easier comps to drive 12% adj. EBITA growth in Q2, before accelerating to ~15% in Q3-Q4e. Cash flow was solid, and yielded a pro forma gearing of 2.6x. This should support >10% earnings growth potential from 2026e, considering GLG's active, and margin-accretive, M&A agenda.
