We forecast SEK 30m EBIT for Q1e, up 6x vs. Q1'24 ABGSCe EBIT down on reduced activity assumptions & negative FX 2025e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-5x, with easy comps
ANNONS
Q1'25e heavily burdened by FX headwinds
For the Q1’25 report (due 9 May), we expect EBIT of SEK 30m (SEK 5m). We expect transaction activity to have improved y-o-y in Q1, but not to have picked up materially in comparison to the level seen in H2'24. Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that AUM within Investment Management (IM) will be down 4% q-o-q to SEK 149bn, burdened by the FX headwind in the quarter where EUR/SEK is down 5% q-o-q. We expect the segment to deliver operating profit of SEK 36m (SEK 32m), a slight improvement compared to the levels seen throughout 2024. We anticipate only a small earnings contribution from Principal Investments of SEK 9m (SEK 1m), and for Corporate Finance we forecast SEK -9m (SEK -23m) in operating profit.
