Vestum: Miss from service units - ABG
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Vestum: Miss from service units - ABG

Q2 results
Organic growth improved and was positive y-o-y, but earnings in service-related units weighed. Sales SEK 1,012m (-2% vs ABGSC, -2% vs cons), -26% y-o-y whereof 3% organic (vs ABGSC 1%), -29% M&A. Adj. EBITA 102m (-10% vs ABGSC, -9% vs cons), -23% y-o-y (-8% y-o-y vs restated numbers), margin 10.1% (ABGSC 11.0%, cons 10.8). EBITA in Flow Technology and Niche Products were more in line (-2-4% vs ABGSC) while Solutions missed by 28%, delivering a margin of 5% (7% in Q2'25). Management highlighted continued weakness in the installation units as the primary reason. Cash conversion was 31% (-41% Q1’25), impacted negatively by expansion in product units. Gearing was 2.7x (2.1x in Q1’25), impacted by the acquisition of Nortech.

Preliminary estimate changes
Our impression is that volumes in the installation business has bottomed but that Vestum needs to transition out of low-margin contracts before we will see an earnings recovery. The infra service units, which comprise ~40% of the Solutions segment, generated better margins (double-digit), which is encouraging. On a positive note, management was very optimistic about growth in Flow Technology as the investment plan AMP8 is being rolled out in the UK. We think the development in Flow Technology is far more important than Solutions. All in all, we expect estimates to come down 2-3% on the miss.

Final thoughts
Management reiterated that it is back in growth mode, and that it intends to close another acquisition in Flow Technology in H2. While the gearing increased in Q2, we expect that it can close another acquisition this year while keeping gearing at ~2.5x. The share has been lagging index recently, and is -13% YTD. It trades at 11x NTM EBITA based on FactSet consensus, or 6% below key peers. Management will host a presentation of the report at 11:00 CET (link).
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