Coor: Delivering on its promises - ABG

Better Norway offset by losses in Denmark
Coor managed to turn both organic sales and EBITA growth positive in Q2, delivering EBITA 7% better than Infront consensus. As management guided, we saw margin improvements from the reorganisation in Q2. The programme was completed towards the end of Q2, which means that we should see the full effect of the savings in H2. That being said, our view is that this is relatively well-reflected in the estimates, which is why we make no material changes to our long-term estimates. The big surprise in Q2 was better variable volumes in Norway (driving 37% earnings growth for the segment), of which around half should be treated as a one-off, according to management. As such, we raise Norway EBITA by 12-7% on '25e-'27e. On the other hand, Denmark remained challenging, and lost a significant contract that expired in Q4. We therefore cut Denmark EBITA by 0-5%. The net effect is that we raise '25e by 5% and '26e-'27e by 0-1%.