CTT Systems - In-line sales, but lower Q3 guidance+margins - ABG
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CTT Systems - In-line sales, but lower Q3 guidance+margins - ABG

Q2 details
Sales were 2% above our expectations, with 7% organic sales growth (ABGSCe +4%), which in turn was driven by better than expected aftermarket sales (-14% y-o-y vs. ABG -19%), as system sales did not grow as much as we had expected (although still up 41% y-o-y vs. ABG +51%). Deliveries to VIP/private jets also picked up clearly (~10m Q2 vs. ~1m Q1). AM share of sales was 71% (ABG 68%). EBIT declined 43% y-o-y (ABG -22% y-o-y), as the margin came in at 23% (ABG 32%, 38% Q2'24) due to negative effects from currency headwinds and a one-time SEK 2m cost for system tests. Free cash flow of ~2m (~15m last year) was negatively affected by lower profits and working capital build-up.

Outlook and estimate changes
For Q3'25, CTT expects sales of SEK 70-80m (mid-point 17% below ABGSCe 91m), up 22-39% y-o-y, as supply chain disturbances and inventory adjustments among OEMs hold back sequential sales growth. Looking further ahead, the CEO expects system sales to clearly increase from Q1'26 based on production plans at the OEMs, where higher system deliveries from 2026 should also drive >20% growth in the installed base (i.e. a proxy for aftermarket sales). All other assumptions intact, the Q2 deviation on EBIT vs. ABGSCe would lower our FY'25e EBIT by 7%, while the Q3 sales mid-point under existing margin assumptions would imply another ~5-10%. In addition, using current FX rates vs. our latest published note, we note that the USD/SEK would add 1-2% to sales, with a greater impact on EBIT (usually a 2-2.5x impact on EBIT vs. sales)

Final thoughts
Currency headwinds are clear, but the continued supply chain disturbances among the OEMs was something we had expected would be complete by mid-2025. The share has returned +19% L1M, above the broader market (OMXSGI +2%), and trades at (pre-Q2 estimates) 33-22x EBIT '25e-'26e (20x L10Y). TEXt. There is a conference call at 09:30 CET, link: https://www.mfn.se/a/ctt-systems/invitation-to-ctt-systems-abs-publ-presentation-of-the-interim-report-for-q2-2025.
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