Suominen: Q2 likely not to be a trigger - focus on H2 outlook - Nordea

Ahead of Suominen's Q2 report, we maintain our estimates intact. We are 2% below pre-Q2 Vara Research consensus on sales and 5% (EUR 0.3m) below on comparable EBITDA. We expect a slight volume decline in Q2, coupled with improving prices. We model 1% y/y constant currency sales growth in Q2E with comparable EBITDA of EUR 4.5m. We note continued decline in pulp prices which could support profitability in H2. However, overcapacity in the European market and increases in import penetration could hamper pricing. At the end of June, Suominen announced the change of the CEO with Charles Héaulmé taking the helm latest from 11 August 2025. While we view Mr. Héaulmé as a good fit for Suominen with relevant experience from converter businesses, larger changes to strategy are possible as the company's strategy period is ending in 2025. In addition, we note somewhat elevated guidance risk given soft market conditions. We model 2025E comparable EBITDA of EUR 21m, 7% below Vara Research consensus and up 22% from EUR 17m in 2024 while Suominen guides for increasing comparable EBITDA in 2025.