Ferronordic: Future European green shoots offset by weak US - Nordea

We lower adjusted EBIT by 13% for 2025E and 6% for 2026E-27E. We expect a weaker quarter from Ferronordic, hampered by a "cooling-off" in the European truck market observed during the quarter, as per commentary from Traton and Daimler, among others. As such, on the negative side, we forecast the weakness in the European truck market observed at the end of Q1 to have persisted into Q2. Positively, we find support from Volvo's recent European market share gains (+5pp y/y in Q2 2025) on the back of its product launches, coupled with its solid Q2 orders (+21% y/y). In the US, we believe a wait-and-see mode will hamper performance in the quarter. While healthy inventory levels for Ferronordic should offset near-term adverse net tariff impacts in the US, we lower H2 2025E gross margin by 75bp – yielding -8% 2025E adjusted EBIT revisions in the US – implying that our previous assumption of a recovery in H2 2025 appears unlikely to materialise. For 2026, we forecast ~60% adjusted EBIT growth y/y, implying a margin of 4.2%, yet we find this recovery already largely reflected in our estimates, with the share trading at ~13x 2026E adjusted EV/EBIT, at the upper end of our valuation range of 8-12x. Marketing material commissioned by Ferronordic.