Xplora Technologies: On the launchpad - ABG
Bildkälla: Stockfoto

Xplora Technologies: On the launchpad - ABG

We expect a solid Q2 and raise '25e-'26e EBIT by 1%
'25e-'28e EBIT CAGR of 31% driven by senior subscriptions...
...leading EV/EBIT to drop from 19x in '25e to 5.8x in '28e


Q2e: Revenue NOK 450m, EBITDA NOK 42m

We forecast Q2 revenue of NOK 450m and EBITDA of NOK 42m. In Q1, device sales in Kids & Youth were soft due to low sell-in to channels. However, device activations were in line the first quarter of the previous two years, indicating that end-market demand remained stable. Xplora has said that it expects to "catch up" the volume in Q2. As such, we forecast Q2 device sales up 10% y-o-y in Kids & Youth. In Senior (Doro), we expect device sales to increase 7% y-o-y, driven by the phasing out of 2G in Norway. Xplora has pre-announced 393k subscriptions at the end of Q2, which was just above our expectation of 388k. Factoring this into our estimates, we lift '25e-'26e EBITDA and EBIT by 1%.
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