Cindrigo: Powering Europe’s clean baseload transition with LSE listing and first revenues

Cindrigo: Powering Europe’s clean baseload transition with LSE listing and first revenues - Emergers

With the admission to the London Stock Exchange Main Market, at Friday, 31st October, and the prospectus approved on 28th October, Cindrigo joins the small group of publicly listed developers focused exclusively on clean baseload energy. Its dual focus on Waste-to-Energy and geothermal power targets one of the most undersupplied segments of the global energy system, with an estimated 4,000 GW of new baseload capacity required worldwide. The listing under the Commercial Companies category enhances governance and institutional visibility, while cornerstone shareholders including Danir AB and the Board remain under lock-ins of up to two years. Supported by a proven management team, early cash flow from the Finnish Kaipola plant and a pipeline of large-scale geothermal projects, Cindrigo enters its next phase with an attractive risk profile and long-term growth potential.

The 110MW Kaipola combined heat and power (CHP) plant in Finland, is now fully rebuilt and preparing to commence commercial production when its primary off-take customer opens its new factory during in H2’25. Kaipola was acquired in 2024 for EUR 18M on a 50-year lease, valued at EUR 105M (depreciated asset). At full speed, it will deliver 25MW of electricity to the Nord Pool and 85MW of heat to industrial and residential customers, initially at c.60 EUR/MWh. With limited operating capex and the potential to expand output and fuel mix over time, this will support a strong EBITDA growth in 2027-2029. This means that Kaipola will generate a stable cash flow base to support group development. Following completion of a modest GBP 2M capital raise in conjunction with the Main Market listing, Cindrigo is fully funded to reach commercial operations and pursue near-term expansion.

Building on this operational foundation, Cindrigo’s growth strategy focuses on its 85%-owned geothermal portfolio in Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley, comprising three licenses targeting around 300MW of combined heat, power and lithium production over the next decade. The initial 80MW phase positions Cindrigo to capitalise on Europe’s elevated energy prices, decarbonisation drive and focus on energy security, with potential for group EBITDA to reach around EUR 90M by 2030, including a EUR 10M contribution from lithium production. The framework partnership with Kaishan Group, under which 70% of on-surface EPC costs are deferred until six months after commercial operation, combined with state subsidies and exploration insurance (including a 50% subsidy on pre-drilling costs, 30–40% CAPEX subsidies for heat infrastructure, government underwriting for project funding, and a 20-year power off-take tariff at c.250 EUR/MWh) provides a highly attractive structure that limits upfront capital requirements.

With basic number of shares post listing at 334M (fully diluted at 490M), we find that the Kaipola project, now about to enter production ramp-up phase, provides support for a near-term value of GBP 0.16 per share, compared with the most recent placing at GBP 0.12. The additional potential from the German geothermal portfolio provides support for a total near-term value of GBP 0.30 per share. As upcoming milestones and risk-reducing activities gradually lower project uncertainty ahead of the planned production start in Germany in 2028, we see scope for a stepwise revaluation towards approximately GBP 0.50 in 2026, GBP 0.75 in 2027, and GBP 1.07 by 2028. These steps are only illustrative, intended to show the potential valuation effect of successful de-risking initiatives. Applying a prudent peer-level 15x EBITDA multiple to our 2030 forecast indicates upside potential to a market capitalization at GBP 750M, equivalent to GBP 2.2 per share. In a longer-term perspective to 2034, we find that continued growth and profitability improvements could support a share price in the GBP 5–10 range.

Finwire / Börsvärlden

Publicerad 31 October 2025, 10:22

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