* EBIT to increase by 58% y-o-y to SEK 30m in Q3'25e * Minor negative tweaks to our 2025e EBIT * 2025e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-6x, with easy comps We forecast EBIT of SEK 30m for Q3'25e, up 58% y-o-y For the Q3’25 report (due 7 November), we expect EBIT of SEK 30m (19m) and that transaction activity has improved y-o-y, a sign of positive momentum slowly building. Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that AUM within Investment Management (IM) will be up 1% q-o-q to SEK 158.5bn, despite some minor FX headwinds in the quarter. We expect the segment to deliver an operating profit of SEK 36m (33m), roughly in line with the operating profit levels seen in the last couple of quarters. The third quarter is often seasonally weaker within Corporate Finance, which is why we expect a sequential decline q-o-q in operating profit, to SEK -6m, the same level as a year ago. We expect only a minor operating profit contribution from Principal Investments of SEK 4m in Q3'25, also in line with Q3'24. Minor tweaks to our 2025 EBIT estimates We only make minor tweaks to our earnings forecasts, reducing our EBIT assumptions for Principal Investments. In sum, our 2025e EBIT is down 2%. 2025e-27e EV/EBIT of 4-6x with a 6-8% dividend yield In our view, the company has many attractive fundamentals, including an impressive track record within Investment Management and attractive own-property investments. The balance sheet remains strong, providing Catella with the necessary resources should the right opportunities arise. The comps are easy, and we believe the transaction activity outlook is promising. This means that we expect strong yearly earnings expansion from here. In addition, when applying our latest earnings revisions, Catella is trading at an EV/EBIT of 4-6x for 2025e-27e and offers an appealing dividend yield of 6-8% p.a.
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