Ferronordic: Tariff headwinds expected to weigh on margins - Nordea

We lower our group gross margin assumptions by 70bp for 2025 and 20-30bp for 2026-27, predominantly owing to tariff-induced headwinds in the US. Owing to the low adjusted EBIT margin base, this prompts adjusted EBIT cuts of 36% for 2025E and 6-8% for 2026E-27E. We expect strong energy-related demand in the US - particularly relating to data centres - to support ~4% y/y organic sales growth. For Germany, more muted commentary from OEMs and sequentially slowing truck traffic statistics invite a more cautious stance in the near term. As such, we expect adjusted EBIT to stay in negative territory for Germany for the remainder of the year, prior to reaching profitability in 2026, though we recognise that this is contingent on a broader market recovery and improving truck utilisation rates. The share currently trades at 2026E EV/EBIT (adj.) of ~13.5x, a ~5% premium to the peer group median. Owing to some rerating among peers, we revise our multiples-based fair value range to SEK 24-49, corresponding to 2026E adjusted EV/EBIT of 12-14x (11-13x).